A Success and Risk Factor Framework for Public Private Partnership Programmes in the Electricity Generation Sector of South Africa

Mogale Diagile Modisane

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Abstract

This study investigates the factors influencing project delivery success in South Africa’s formal reverse-auction Public Private Partnership (PPP) programmes in the electricity generation sector. Using a qualitative deductive-inductive design, twenty-one expert interviews were analysed through a five-phase thematic analysis to identify Critical Success Factors (CSFs), Critical Success Criteria (CSCs), Interlink Factors (IFs), and Critical Risk Factors (CRFs) associated with the progression of projects from Preferred Bidder status to Financial Close. The study develops an integrated Success and Risk Factor Framework comprising thirty-two CSFs, seven CSCs, four IFs, and seventeen CRFs. The findings indicate that declining Financial Close performance since 2020 is driven primarily by structural rather than political factors. Grid connection constraints emerged as the dominant success factor, functioning as a binding limitation that cannot be overcome through tariff adjustments alone. The study finds that price-dominant evaluation of bids assessed for compliance rather than deliverability can incentivize unsustainable bidding behaviour. Three enabling factors emerged inductively from the data: project readiness, continuous re-evaluation of programme market fit, and adjustment for material changes in market conditions. The study contributes to PPP literature by integrating success, measurement, and risk constructs into a single framework tailored to reverse-auction electricity procurement. It concludes that greater emphasis on project readiness, bankability, and grid availability is required if South Africa’s electricity procurement programmes are to improve Financial Close outcomes and deliver sustainable infrastructure investment.

Keywords
critical success factor, critical success criteria, critical risk factor, public private partnership, independent power producers, South Africa electricity generation